Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 2.029809 2.132417 2.241946 2.368400 2.511472 2.669701 2.859921
2025-06-15 1.923792 2.057726 2.206691 2.387002 2.602771 2.857534 3.189200
2025-06-22 1.801684 1.947059 2.112671 2.318959 2.574754 2.890310 3.325291
2025-06-29 1.737726 1.895577 2.079409 2.314691 2.616782 3.006549 3.578221
2025-07-06 1.664501 1.827066 2.019226 2.269816 2.599634 3.039506 3.716624
2025-07-13 1.637188 1.810998 2.020301 2.299843 2.679910 3.210165 4.085280
2025-07-20 1.625545 1.812447 2.041905 2.356275 2.799262 3.450303 4.621949
2025-07-27 1.592668 1.785253 2.024798 2.358811 2.841609 3.579098 5.001454
2025-08-03 1.563393 1.760896 2.009506 2.361865 2.883648 3.711594 5.429232
2025-08-10 1.513661 1.708368 1.954709 2.306321 2.832550 3.681976 5.506116
2025-08-17 1.483507 1.679859 1.930334 2.291985 2.842821 3.758090 5.847469
2025-08-24 1.455839 1.653493 1.907538 2.278277 2.852372 3.833394 6.217706
2025-08-31 1.426955 1.625605 1.882890 2.262478 2.860469 3.913365 6.661483
2025-09-07 1.412204 1.615553 1.881739 2.280542 2.924504 4.109917 7.583639
2025-09-14 1.371101 1.569360 1.829232 2.219341 2.851280 4.021433 7.506892
2025-09-21 1.351828 1.551655 1.815469 2.215687 2.875315 4.137066 8.269654
2025-09-28 1.321264 1.518030 1.778442 2.174936 2.832381 4.104579 8.424073
2025-10-05 1.314645 1.516284 1.785814 2.202324 2.910441 4.349909 10.138155
2025-10-12 1.315779 1.524902 1.807934 2.253632 3.036497 4.739705 13.903893
2025-10-19 1.301898 1.512565 1.799535 2.255943 3.071848 4.916556 17.191766
2025-10-26 1.288844 1.500977 1.791756 2.258718 3.108174 5.106171 22.702091
2025-11-02 1.260871 1.468199 1.752288 2.208252 3.036857 4.981245 21.781042
2025-11-09 1.244764 1.451550 1.735976 2.195205 3.038836 5.069155 27.128939